The Polling Report [10.15.12] – Obama Regains National Lead.
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A New York Magazine poll of political insiders, asked to predict the winner of the presidential election, finds President Obama overwhelmingly favored over Mitt Romney, 82% to 18%. These are the same political insiders that were jonesing for a close dramatic race, right? Meanwhile, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows President Obama leads Mitt Romney by a 59% to 31% among those who have already voted. With the November 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7% of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail.
There is a new Washington Post-ABC News poll out this morning that gives much comfort to we nervous Democratic wusses. First, the poll finds President Obama leading Mitt Romney among likely voters, 49% to 46%, "basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate."
"Nearly two-thirds say they do not need any more information before Election Day, and barely one in eight is undecided or says there is a chance he could change his vote. Even as voters overwhelmingly perceive that Romney won the first debate, the vast majority say their opinion of the president did not shift as a result." "But more people changed their views of Romney, largely in a positive direction. Overall, more than twice as many say their opinions of the former Massachusetts governor improved than say they worsened as a result of the debate. The strongest reaction is among Romney backers, 70 percent of whom say Denver made them think more highly of the GOP nominee."This poll is not an outlier. Other polls showed the President retaking the national lead from Romney as the latter's debate bounce fades. Here is our new map:
