The Polling Report [10.25.12]

Mark Halperin: "Chicago remains sufficiently funded and emboldened by its own polling to compete for the final two weeks in all nine of the battlegrounds: Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia in the South; New Hampshire in the North; Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin in the Midwest; and Nevada and Colorado in the West. As they have in the past, Obama campaign officials say they expect to win a high percentage of those states and conceivably could sweep all nine." "When pressed, the Obama officials with whom I met said that five of the nine stand out: Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire. In that quintet, Democrats believe the combination of their current leads in polling, early voting (where applicable), and ground game makes their chances of winning even greater there than in the other four. And given the Electoral College math, unless Romney picks off one or more of those five states, Obama would win a minimum of 281 electoral votes and re-election." As Greg Sargent notes, the polling averages show Obama leading in each of those states as well. The polls today also show Obama leading where it counts:

Wednesday Open Thread [10.24.12]

"The truth is both sides are worried -- Team Obama is nowhere near as confident about its map as public statements suggest, and the Romney surge isn't as real (or relevant, given battleground-state polling) as Republicans are spinning. Yet it's that map that governs still -- national polls aside, the Romney surge hasn't spilled into the battlegrounds (particularly Ohio) enough to upend the race in Romney's favor, at least not yet."

Christine O’Donnell Defends Eric Bodenweiser, calls Indictment “Tacky.”

WGMD has the audio of Christine O'Donnell's reaction to the Eric Bodenweiser indictmenet. Christine O'Donnell, mind you, is the presumptive GOP nominee to run against Sen. Chris Coons in 2014. Here is the transcript:
CHRISTINE O'DONNELL: That’s why these sort of, charges are so, are so, potent as political weapons because they put a seed of doubt in someone’s mind. If you do it as an October surprise there’s not enough time between when they throw the bomb on election day for the truth to really emerge and, um, it’s just, it’s tacky and it’s what happened to our political system.
This is the same woman whose campaign spread rumors about Mike Castle being gay. Seriously, Christine, shut the fuck up. You are the ultimate practitioner of what you call "tacky" politics. You and your tea party has been using lies, rumors, racism and innuedo since your arrival on the political scene. Further, this is not tacky. It is tragic. A Horror. And if these charges are true, Eric Bodenweiser is a monster that needs to be put away forever. Yes, forever. Until he dies in prison. Seriously, it is that freaking serious.

Lest There Be Any Doubt…

I am not going back to Dover or anywhere else to work for the General Assembly or, for that matter, state government. In the past day, we at DL have had to moderate allegations from one poster that I've cut some sort of secret deal with candidates for me to get a job back in Dover. Not because of the allegations, which are false, but b/c this serial outer once again outs where I work. This person is not affiliated with the Cloutier campaign, the moribund DeLuca campaign, or any other campaign. He simply blames me, along with numerous other people in my community, for his own situation. Which is not true, but that's neither here nor there. He's done this many times before, and he's been moderated for it. My statement should be obvious to anyone who has read my work for the last four years or so. I've held nothing back as far as my opinions regarding what I believe is good and bad in state government.  I am neither delusional enough to believe that what I've written would be forgiven/forgotten, nor masochistic enough to want to work in that environment.

Twice Divorced Trump to make a big deal about an almost divorce?

So weird-hair cut Birther King and small businessman Donald Trump, who has had numerous adulterous affairs throughout his life and has been thrice married and twice divorced, has a big announcement scheduled for this afternoon, and in his typical lampoonish style, Trump has described what he will announce as "bordering on gigantic," a story so big that it would "possibly" change the state of the election. And what is this annoucement? Well, according to the British tabloid, the Daily Mail, the announcement will concern the discovery by Trump of long lost divorce papers that Michelle Obama had drawn up back in 2000 after Barack lost a U.S. House race to Bobby Rush in 2000.

Monster Downballot Polling Report, with some Presidential numbers too [10.24.12]

The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama moving slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, as you will see below. However, Obama "maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 322 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes." I wish more tracking polls released this kind of information so we can see where these leads for Romney in the other ones are coming from. We saw last week that Romney's entire lead comes from the South, where he leads Obama by 22%, while Obama lead in every other region with 52 or 53%. We have new state polls in New Hampshire, Florida, Virginia and Nevada, where it is a close race all around.

Republican Senate Candidate: Pregnancy From Rape Is God’s Will

FYI:  Todd "legitimate rape" Akin is not an outlier.  Rep. Roger "some girls rape easy" Rivard is not an outlier.  Sharron "make lemonade out of rape" Angle is not an outlier.  Paul "I agree with Akin" Ryan is not an outlier. As time goes on, I'm rapidly reaching the conclusion that Republicans view the act of rape as god's will.  It's almost as if, and I hesitate to type this, but... it's almost as if they are casting god as the rapist.  It's like these guys view god as a Zeus-like figure.  It's like they are saying that despite the woman's wishes god has decided she should be pregnant so he sent a rapist to fulfill his will.

Comment Rescue – Denn would be a kick ass Governor

The headline is a paraphrase from a comment down below. But, I think we can all agree, Matt Denn is a Democrat's Democrat. He'll make a hell of a Governor if he wants to take that step. In the meantime he just goes around quietly kicking ass and making people remember what government should be all about. Here is a recent youtube ad he recently put out on work he's done helping families with special needs kids.

Tuesday Open Thread [10.23.12]

It is good to see that Mitt Romney is representative of the average GOP voter regarding knowledge of world geography. Mittens said last night that Syria is Iran's route to the sea. Interestingly though, on this planet we call Earth, Syria and Iran do not share a border. Iraq stands in the way. Further, and more importantly, Iran already has several of its own routes to the sea. It has a very long southern coastline that gives the country access to the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. It's northern border includes its coastline on the Caspian Sea, which, while it is an essentially landlocked inland sea, it does have canals and rivers that lead eventually to the Black Sea and then to the Mediterranean Sea. So how could Mittens make such a collassal mistake? Does he not know world geography? I thought he was a smart man? Was this just a slip of the tongue, a one time mistake?

I don’t get this DEGOP line of attack against Markell

We Want a Four Year Full-Time Governor! Dear Voter, During the past few Gubernatorial debates we have begun to see a different side of Governor Markell, one that he does not want the voters to see. When the Governor is asked about why he will not sign a pledge to serve his full term in office, he gets defensive and refuses to answer the question.
Uhh... ? What is Sigler thinking with this? - "Most people like Markell, but if we make them think that he will leave prior to finishing his term, they'll hate him." - "Our guy sucks, but at least nobody will be asking him to serve in an administration." I mean really. Is this a strategy?