Year: 2012

For the first time in what seems like months, we have a state flipping sides. A poll out of Colorado gives Romney a slim lead, and so we change the color on the map. This is the nadir of the campaign for Obama supporters, waiting on a ledge for two more Presidential debates and tomorrow's Vice Presidential debate to erase our horrid memories (and the media's) of last week's unpleasantness. The good news is that the Romney debate bounce is already fading, with his best polling days (in terms of samples) being Thursday and Friday last week, and then Obama mounting a comeback on Saturday and Sunday most likely due to the excellent jobs report showing over 200,000 jobs being added in September, August and July.

Nate Cohn: "Over the next few days, more surveys will weigh-in on the size of Romney's post-debate bounce. But it's important to keep an eye on whether the polls are measuring the peak of Romney's bounce, which looks like it was around 4 points before the polls with Sunday interviews pointed toward a smaller one, or whether they're measuring the weekend and later, when there are signs that Romney's bounce began to fade. Resolving the size of Romney's bounce and whether it lasted are two important, but separate questions. We'll need to be careful to track both."

Meanwhile, a new ABC News/Washington Post poll still finds Mitt Romney's favorability rating underwater, though the last debate helped raise his favorables. And though President Obama had a bad debate, he did not damage his favorability either. In fact, he increased it. Romney is now seen favorably by 47% of registered voters overall, unfavorably by 51%; Obama's rating is better, 55% to 44%.

Amy Walter: "The good news for Romney: He's seen a boost in his favorability ratings. The bad news: More still see him unfavorably than favorably. There have only been four presidential candidates in recent history who were underwater in favorability, at least briefly. All lost. John Kerry and Jimmy Carter in September, Walter Mondale, George H.W. Bush in October."

So the roller coaster continues...

Shake that Etch-A-Sketch. Remember all of Mitt Romney's tough talk on abortion during the Republican primary? No?  Then let's review:

ROMNEY: I appointed probably 50 or 60 judges--at the trial court level, mostly, the great majority. These were former prosecutors; 80% of them former prosecutors. We don't have a litmus test for appointing judges--asking them if they're pro-life or not pro-life. These were people going after crimes and the like. I am pro-life. And the Massachusetts Citizens for Life and several other family-oriented groups wrote a letter two weeks ago and said they'd watched my record, that I was an avidly pro-life governor. I am a pro-life governor; I am a pro-life individual. Is there any possibility that I've ever made a mistake in that regard, I didn't see something that I should have seen? Possibly. But you can count on me, as president, to pursue a policy that protects the life of unborn, whether here in this country or overseas. And I'll reverse the policies of this president. ROMNEY: People have had a chance to look at my record and look what I've said. I believe people understand that I'm firmly pro-life. I will support justices who believe in following the Constitution and not legislating from the bench. And I believe in the sanctity of life from the very beginning until the very end. Romney:  "I'm in favor of having the Supreme Court overturn Roe v Wade" Huckabee asked Romney, "Would you have supported the constitutional amendment that would have established the definition of life at conception?" Romney answered, "Absolutely."

Remember that Mitt Romney.  Well, forget about him. 

Ryan is going to reveal the budgetary and rhetorical genius that he has been hiding all of this time. Biden is going to make a stammering ass out of himself. Ryan is going to rip his shirt off in triumph and flex is P90-x abs in celebration. The Nation will swoon. Rasmussen will show a huge jump in Romney's polling numbers. Intrade investors will drop Obama like plutonium, and the GOP ticket will cruise to victory carrying 7 Senate seats along with them for good measure.

A lot of polling firms went quiet in the middle of the week in order to go into the field fresh on Thursday to gauge the debate impact. Romney has definitely gotten a bump, but what is encouraging is that it is not at the expense of Obama. Obama's numbers are holding, so Romney is just picking up undecideds. We should get a clearer picture of the battleground since Mitt Romney lied his way to a debate win last Wednesday. Indeed, I have a question for Republicans and conservatives. If you have to lie about your policies, plans and ideologies in order to win, what does that tell you? In some polls, notably the PPP poll out of Virginia last night, the Romney lies only served to make him more likable among Democrats and Independents, and they allowed Romney to win the debate. Interestingly though, while Virginia independents think Romney won the debate 71-17, it doesn't mean they are voting for him. They are splitting their vote at 46% a piece. And while more Democrats may find Romney likeable now than before, they are not voting for him.