The Polling Report [10.26.12]

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I was traveling back from Connecticut yesterday and was preparing for the Hurricane Frankenstorm Sandy Halloween Apocalypse today, so here is your polling report with polls from the last two days. We have a lot of North Carolina polls today, and they are all over the place, but the average of them all puts the state is SLIM ROMNEY territory, but it is only a lead of 1.5 points. Florida too is in the Romney slim category, but also only a lead of 1.5 points. The rest of the swing states are in the Obama column. Indeed, Greg Sargent ran through the latest running polling averages (which, once again, we don't do here at the DL Polling Report) and finds President Obama leading in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa while Mitt Romney leads in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. The race is essentially tied in Colorado and New Hampshire.
"For the sake of argument, let's give the tied states to Romney. Here's the basic state of things: If you give Romney all the states where he is leading or tied in the averages -- Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire -- he is still short of 270. Meanwhile, if you give Obama just the states where he leads in the averages, he wins reelection."
Here is our map:

Governor Markell Declares (Limited) State Of Emergency

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Governor Markell orders a mandatory evacuation of coastal areas in all three counties in Delaware as the state prepares for a major hit from Hurricane Sandy. The evacuation order begins at 8pm Saturday, giving residents 24 hours to get out of the storm's path. All evacuations should be completed by 8pm Sunday. The state expected 50,000 people to be fleeing coastal areas.

I Stand Corrected: Dem Signs to Come Down & More

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Earlier, I let my cynicism get the better of me. I should have known better with people like Matt Denn around. I received this email from the Democratic party during the 7 o'clock hour:
We received the email pasted below regarding sign removal in preparation for Hurricane Sandy. The Coordinated Campaign (Carper, Carney, Markell, Denn, Weldin Stewart Campaigns) will be working to remove signs by region, but we need all the help we can get. Stephanie Swain with Matt Denn's campaign will be coordinating these efforts. Please contact her at stephanie.swain@mattdenn.com to find out more and/or to volunteer.

Current Betting Lines – Legislative Races

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Bring your $2.00 up to the window. The introductions have been made and the horses are approaching the gates. Senate 4thGreenville-Brandywine Hundred-Pike Creek Valley -> Mike Katz Democrat 51% Greg Lavelle - Republican Senate 12th New Castle-Delaware City-below the canal Dori Connor Republican ->Nicole Poore - Democrat 54% (Dori, when I see your William Penn looking signs down in Cav's Country, I think about how upside down the world must seem to you right now.)

Not Gonna Happen

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I just got a press release from DelDOT that has a lot of good information about storm prep, including road projects that have been postponed due to the impending conflagration…

Delaware Political Weekly: October 20-26, 2012

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We get stuff forwarded to us all the time. From campaigns, from sources, from ’sources’, and from the parties. I call it ‘working the refs’. Part of the game, nothing wrong with it. Even if/when you don’t believe what you’re being fed, the information/propaganda is still worthwhile, b/c it at least gives you an understanding of which races the parties are prioritizing. There can now be no doubt that both the D’s and R’s are intently focusing on the 29th Rep. District, a Clayton/Dover district in Kent County. Incumbent Lincoln Willis is widely viewed in Republican circles as one of the (very few) rising stars in the Party. Were he to win this year, I would not be at all surprised to see him elected to a leadership position within the House Republican Caucus. Challenger Trey Paradee is, at worst, a live underdog in this race. You will recall that he almost defeated incumbent Pam Thornburg four years ago, the district has been redrawn in a manner that would appear to favor Paradee, and Paradee is a great campaigner. The Democratic Party has been touting this race, and the R’s have circled the wagons around Willis. When I featured my “Most Intriguing Races of 2012″, I wrote that this race was ‘under the radar’. It is under the radar no more.