Heh, several days after I posted my analysis of the PPP numbers for Republicans the NJ jumps on board (of course ignoring DL):
Glen Urquhart, billing himself as the choice of true conservatives, found comfort in a poll released last week on a liberal blog — the Daily Kos. That poll, done by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, showed that Urquhart would fare just about as well as Michele Rollins — the GOP’s endorsed candidate — against Carney.
The article says Rollins doubts this poll. That’s probably why she’s unleashing her campaign ads now. I missed this one, Urquhart has an internal poll giving him a 5-7 point lead over Rollins.
So last Thursday, in his New Castle County campaign headquarters — the Newark home of John Stabley — he released results of a survey his campaign paid for that showed him leading Rollins by 5 to 7 percentage points in the primary. It showed, he said, that he can beat Rollins statewide, not just in Sussex County, by appealing to the Judeo-Christian values he says most Americans share.
Apparently Urquhart’s poll was a push poll.
Urquhart’s pollster — ccAdvertising — said it sent its questions by a voice-activated phone system to more than 16,000 Republican households. The full results of the survey were not released — much of it was meant for marketing purposes only, campaign staffers said — but several pointed questions were asked depending on whether the respondent favored Urquhart or Rollins.
The questions referred to donations Rollins made to now-Vice President Joe Biden during one of his re-election campaigns for the U.S. Senate and another to a political action committee (The Wish List) supporting female Republican candidates who would defend abortion as a woman’s choice. Calling her pro-abortion and “Heiress Rollins,” the questions linked Rollins to millions in bank bailout money while she was a director for Wilmington Trust Co., and said she made millions in the gambling industry.
Rollins response is also pretty amusing.
The questions made many people hang up the phone, Rollins said Monday.
Of course, Rollins hasn’t released any kind of internal polling showing she’s ahead. I find it hard to believe that with her warchest she doesn’t have any polling numbers. Rollins also seems pretty defensive in the article (go read to see her answers about donating to Joe Biden and her position on abortion), which still leaves the impression that Rollins is on the ropes and the Urquhart is surging.
Over on Glen Urquhart’s campaign website (LOL, Michele Rollins’s website is the first Google hit when you look for Urquhart on Google) he has a press release on the poll.
The statewide survey of registered Delaware Republican voters assessed the views of Republicans planning to vote in the September 14th Primary Election and had 16,803 participants.
You have to be kidding, 16K participants? Wow. I’d say that’s statistically significant if true. Anyway…
Brian McAllister of ccAdvertising stated, “In the race for Congress in Delaware, among registered Republicans, Glen Urquhart polls at 38.96%, a 7.01% lead over establishment candidate Michele Rollins, who polls at 31.95%. The undecided’s, who will determine the winner of this race, stand at 29.09%.”
In further exploration of the issues, the survey determined that 69.11% of respondents who do not intend to vote for Glen Urquhart would be more likely to trust Glen Urquhart over Michele Rollins on the issue of life; 65.61% would be more likely to trust Glen Urquhart over Michele Rollins to cut taxes and spending in Washington; and 73.54% would be more likely to vote for Glen Urquhart over Michele Rollins knowing that he is political outsider, small businessman and champion of Delaware’s family values.
Urquharts press release cites 2 polls, the other poll is none other than the PPP Poll:
The second poll by the Democrat polling company Public Policy Polling shows Rollins and Urquhart in a virtual tie when considering the opinion of a cross-section of Democrat, Republican and Independent Delaware voters at 32% – 30% respectively, with a margin of error of 4%.
*raised eyebrow* I’d like to see how that analysis was done.
Anyway, this sure does bring up some interesting dynamics for the general election. Until now Rollins-Castle and Urquhart-O’Donnell have been seen as “teams.” I had always assumed that Urquhart was trying to ride a bit on O’Donnell’s coattails since she’s better known because of her previous runs for office. That situation may be reversed. O’Donnell may be better known still, but she definitely wants his voters to come out and vote for her as well.
Castle, on the other hand, has to be a little nervous about sharing the top of the ticket with Glen “liberals are Nazis” Urquhart since Castle needs Democratic support to win his election. I’ll bet Urquhart has said critical things of Castle in the past as well. Would Castle and Urquhart be able to campaign together in a unity ticket?