Tuesday Daily Delawhere [9.25.12]
Mitt Romney's campaign took a hard line with the Spanish-language network Univision, making last-minute demands in the run-up to last week's town hall that helped insure his success in the forum, sources familiar with the broadcast told BuzzFeed. When the Republican took his place Wednesday night in the first of two back-to-back candidate forums televised on the mega-network, he was greeted by an adoring, raucous crowd that cheered his every word, and booed many of the moderators' questions. The next night, President Obama was treated to stone cold silence from the audience as he was aggressively grilled on his lackluster immigration record.That's quite a different audience response. Wonder why? Perhaps it had to do with this: "they (the Romney Campaign) told the network and university that if they weren't given an exemption to the students-only rule, they might have to "reschedule." Or... Nice show you have scheduled. It would be shame if something happened to it.
The firm is a British firm, that moved into the American market in 2007 when they bought out Polimetrix, a California-based firm that had done a lot of internet-based polling in 2006 in an arrangement with Stanford University. Their polling is based on internet samples, a method which some find problematic (some aggregators of polling, indeed, refuse to utilize their data). It is a methodology that I also confess to qualms about, because when you have a sample that is essentially volunteering to participate, and a smaller universe from which to draw from, the potential pitfalls are pretty self-evident. However, the true measure is performance. [...] YouGov ... has earned at least a cycle's worth of benefit of the doubt. Their 2010 track record was more than reasonable. Indeed, of the 18 pollsters that offered up a substantive number of polls, YouGov came in fourth place in terms of their accuracy (defined as the percentage of races where they came within three percent of the final margin).Another new polling outfit that has performed a polling dump today is Purple Strategies. Some of their results are eye raising. They have Obama winning North Carolina but losing Florida, and yet within three of Romney in Arizona. I will bet you everything I own that there is no way that is possible. If Obama wins North Carolina, he is winning Florida too. And if he is making Arizona a swing state, then he is up ten in Florida and 5 in North Carolina. Then again, Purple Strategies has been more pro-Romney this cycle, and if Obama is making Arizona competitive, then maybe this race has just broken wide open...