Polling Firms have been quite busy this week. The big poll yesterday was the Pew Poll showing an 8 point national lead for the President. In the Senate races, multiple polls in three races now show former Governor Tim Kaine, Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Tammy Baldwin breaking out to significant leads in their respective races after being tied or behind forever. It looks like Obama voters in all three races are coming home to the Democratic candidate in each race, showing that the President might have some serious coattails, and if he has that, then the chances are the Dems will pick up the 25 seats they need and more to retake the House of Representatives and hold the Senate.
But first, more on that Pew poll:
Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage.
Not only does Obama enjoy a substantial lead in the horserace, he tops Romney on a number of key dimensions. His support is stronger than his rival’s, and is positive rather than negative. Mitt Romney’s backers are more ardent than they were pre-convention, but are still not as enthusiastic as Obama’s. Roughly half of Romney’s supporters say they are voting against Obama rather than for the Republican nominee. With the exception of Bill Clinton in 1992, candidates lacking mostly positive backing have lost in November.
Bill Clinton won 370 electoral votes in 1992, and 379 in 1996. As you can see, the President is likely on a similar course to reelection: